Tag Archives: FX

BTC Price Defies ETF Turn-Down by Chicago Board of Exchange

The Chicago Board of Exchange has withdrawn its applications for Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin and other Crypto prices held steady despite the fact that the mainstream news and financial talking-heads might see a move like that ‘catastrophic’ for near-term prices. Rather than following conventional ‘wisdom’, prices of Crypto coins continued their overall friendly moves seen to be back in the markets since mid-December, with most of them trading steady to higher compared to US dollars or other national currencies.

The fact that BTC prices did not at all drop on this particular bit of news should be seen as yet another proof of no significant portions of dumb money slushing around in the overall Crypto markets anymore — an overall positive fact when it comes to near-term to medium-term outlooks for Crypto prices.

Just over a year ago, and with the Crypto price mania in full swing, expectations of the introduction of Bitcoin Futures may have been a large contributing factor to the explosive price movements at the time.

Sure enough, this resulted in very short-lived hyperbolic growth followed by a blow-off top and serious breakdown in price, from which Bitcoin and the other Cryptos have, so far, spent roughly a year trying to recover.

It is very nice to see that the CBOE’s turn-down did not deliver another blow to the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar for many reasons: apart from the obvious preference for advancing prices, it’s got to do with a deeper analysis of the audience or market participants in the overall Crypto coin sphere. It is a well-known fact that ETFs attract usually the very dumb money of particularly unqualified speculators. Buying an ETF on anything does not require any sophistication whatsoever — but understanding why this is more often than not a bad idea anyway would take at least some, and that’s why so many people buy them and ETF managers are laughing all the way to the bank.

When it comes to ETFs on the BTC price, the audience is even dumber than for, say, stock index ETFs or market segment ETFs that may (or may not) make sense to someone wanting a quick fix and some price exposure to, e, g, the S&P500 which (after listening to his “financial advisor” or watching hundreds of hours of CNBC or Bloomberg) he may believe a “non-tradeable” instrument. (Do note though that the S&P500 can be traded, in fact, even if buying or selling S&P futures require very high margins and is beyond the means of many small investors; still, price exposure can equally be had by buying and offsetting S&P options, starting at $25 per pop, or options on the S&P mini from $5.) When it comes to buying an ETF on the Bitcoin price, doing so shows an even more severe lack of information. Dodging the hassle of even looking into how a simple Bitcoin wallet can be set up and the resulting willingness to go for a Bitcoin ETF instead only proves that this speculator is not even able or willing to do a few clicks on his computer but turns to his “trusted providers” of consolation and perceived safety instead. A retail investor or speculator of this type will, of course, pay significant mark-ups (as in extra-high prices plus fees charged) on something he could have had for zero fees!

Demonstrating price moves indicating that the overall Crypto segment is not overly dependent on that kind of money is a very good thing.